The short-term technical indicators are showing weakness. Retailers’ on-going activity in response to volatile markets is increasing, which is translating to a high probability of a side chopping market in the mid-term. When trading volume is low, as it is now, capitulation events are more likely to occur.
Price Forecast
Long-Term Bitcoin Price Prediction:
Bollinger Bands (BB) reached the low band and a long candlestick formed. This stopped the recent uptrend on the daily timeframe. As the RSI indicator has broken above its downtrend line, a safer strategy is to wait until the price crosses the BB baseline. Then market participants will know that buyers are more powerful in the order book.
Short-Term Bitcoin Price Prediction:
Upon rejecting the supply zone at $39.3K, Bitcoin corrected on the 4H timeframe, finding a support at $36.2K. The candlestick shadows indicate that buyers are accumulating in this area. It is essential to cross the supply zone ($39.3K) to continue the upward trend. The next support is at $35.5K.
Onchain Analysis
The activity of retailers on bitcoin’s network can be measured using many metrics. The Median Size of the Transferred Token per transaction is among the easiest but most powerful metrics that analysts can use to estimate the intensity of the small investor’s activity.
In the above chart, the 14D SMA of this metric can be seen. The divergence between price and this metric’s 14D SMA indicates that retailers remain apprehensive about the market. In mid-term, a trend reversal would indicate that paper investors have been flushed out of the market and a price recovery is feasible
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Author
Chris Munch is a professional cryptocurrency and blockchain writer with a background in software businesses, and has been involved in marketing within the cryptocurrency space. With a passion for innovation, Chris brings a unique and insightful perspective to the world of crypto and blockchain. Chris has a deep understanding of the economic, psychological, marketing and financial forces that drive the crypto market, and has made a number of accurate calls of major shifts in market trends. He is constantly researching and studying the latest trends and technologies, ensuring that he is always up-to-date on the latest developments in the industry. Chris’ writing is characterized by his ability to explain complex concepts in a clear and concise manner, making it accessible to a wide audience of readers.
